Working budget of $ 2 billion Methods research Coursework

Working budget of $ 2 billion Methods research - Coursework Example Using the three electronic resources, compile the required data for the 48 countries in an Excel spreadsheet (each row should represent a country and each column should contain the data for one variable). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is very important in the calculation of the national income of any country. The GDP is calculated by adding the market value of all the final goods or services produced within a country in a given financial year. to be more specific no intermediate goods but only the final products or services because if intermediate goods are also taken into consideration then there would be the error of double calculation in the national income of the country. The GDP of a country is arrived at by adding the sum involved in the consumption activities, the investment activities, the spending by the government of the country and also the net exports (which is derived by deducting the gross imports from the gross exports). GDP = Cn + It + Gs + E(e-i) Where Cn = consumptio n, It = investment, Gs= Government spending, E= net exports, i= imports, e= exports. The exogenous model is also called as the most suitable model which is needed to understand and frame the long term economic growth of a country. Excel sheet attached. 2. Read the compiled data into Stata, and estimate the empirical model. Test the following null and alternative hypotheses: gen Lypc 2005 =log( ypc2005) gen Lypc1990 =log( ypc1990) gen diferrence lypc=log(ypc2005)-log(ypc1990) gen lseced = log(seced) gen infl= log( cpi1990)-log( cpi1985) inflation regress dlypc Lypc1990 lseced govgdp open infl credit (i) H0:?2=?3=?4=?5=?6=?7=0 against H1:?j?0 for at least one j?(2...7), using a significance level of 0.05. = = = 1.81 The Decision rule is that we can : Accept H0 if F0.05 Reject H0 if ?>F0.05 where F0.05 is the 5% critical value from F(k–1, n–k): in this case F(7–1,48–7), or F(6,41). F0.05 = 2.34 Decision is accept H0: F plays a significant role as F is the de termining factor of arriving at conclusions. The use of the independent variables has not assisted in predicting the dependent variable (dlypc). (ii) H0:?2=0 against H0:?2?0 using a significance level of 0.05. ii) H0:?2=0 against H1:?2?0 at a significance level of 0.05 ? = = = -2.68 Decision rule: Accept H0 if -t0.025 ? ? ? t0.025 Reject H0 if ? t0.025 ?t0.025 from t(41) is ?2.04 Decision is reject H0.: it means the variable (lypc90) has a significance impact in the depended variable (dlypc). We can see that there is a contradiction between the test in (i) and (ii). In (i) we accept that: ?2=?3=?4=?5=?6=?7=0 where in (ii) we reject that :?2=0 . Also, we can check by compare the p-value of the coefficient (0.011)

The empowerment of women rights Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

The empowerment of women rights - Research Paper Example This suggests that the gender has been over-emphasized upon in the assessment of eligibility to work while it was a very insignificant factor on the intellectual grounds. Empowerment of women is the fundamental prerequisite of the eradication of extremism and poverty. Extremism is fundamentally against women empowerment. Extremism means exaggeration. Extremists consider the women inferior to men in all areas. There is no doubt in the fact that men are physically stronger as compared to the men, but extremism further underestimates the women to the extent that their intellectual abilities are challenged, which are by no means lesser than those of the men. â€Å"[A] study of National Association of Investors Corporation (NAIC), found that women- only clubs achieved average annual returns of 32% since 1951 versus 23% for men-only investment clubs. The verdict is; women know how to handle money and can be greater entrepreneurs than men if the various obstacles to development is removed or minimized† (Osalor). In addition to that, religious fanatics cannot see women progressing in the society and standing shoulder to shoulder with men. In the extremely conservative societies, women are not allowed to work. Victorian Era is fundamentally known for the extreme subjugation of women’s rights. ... Women are roughly equal to men in number in the world’s population. Just like many men don’t like working with women, many women also don’t like being dealt with by men. Women have their own issues and for many of which, they need the counseling, treatment and advice only from women. Such issues include medical issues, education and psychological counseling. Women are better able to understand and provide advice upon the women’s issues than men are. In many cases, the feministic perspective plays a fundamental role in understanding the female client’s problems. In addition to that, a lot of people in the conservative societies do not educate their daughters because of the unavailability of female teachers. In an attempt to keep their daughters safe from the issues of coeducation that include but are not limited to the boyfriend-girlfriend culture, premarital sex and court marriages, parents tend to compromise upon the daughters’ education. In turn, they remain illiterate and unable to equip themselves with the necessary skills to be able to join the workforce. Illiteracy of the women happens to be one of the most fundamental causes of the epidemic of poverty in such societies. Likewise, women are required in the healthcare sector in order to cater for the needs of the women in the society. Women prefer female gynecologists over the male gynecologists because of several reasons including the religion, custom and culture. Women have proved their strength quite a lot of times in the past, whenever they had acquired a chance to. At the time of the 19th century industrial revolution, women had come into the front line in order to get employed and earn. Their intention was fundamentally to serve as their husband’s helping hand, and they proved

Starbucks Leadership Styles

Starbucks Leadership Styles Introduction: Starbucks started in 1971 when three friends started coffee business, and their main objective was to sell coffee beans and equipment. Howard Schultz joined the company in 1982 and turned it into becoming an international brand. Schultz’s main goal and vision as CEO was to make people realize that buying a cup of coffee in Starbucks is lifetime experience. Under Schultz leadership Starbucks has achieved number of milestones. Schultz received an International Humanitarian Award in 1996 from Care for his vision and leadership developing in an innovative partnership between Starbucks and Care to support people in coffee originating countries. Schultz view of leadership: Howard Schultz’s statement â€Å"If they had faith in me and my motives they wouldn’t need a union† reflects his powerful communication skills as a leader. He knows how to build emotional connection with the staff. The heart of leadership is trust. Without trust you cannot lead. Exemplary leaders are devoted to building relationships based on mutual respect and caring. Watson (1983). The mark of a successful leader is his ability to forecast the business trends and stay ahead of his competitors (Luthans 1998). That means leadership involves skills and abilities that are useful whether one is in the executive position or frontline. However union signifies group of a workforce in certain businesses who form a link between an employer and unionized employees in which terms and condition of employment are determined. It also helps to improve the conditions at workplace and negotiate with employers on issues of wages, medical reimbursement or sickness. When employees and employers are not able to come to one decision then trade union negotiate with employer to reach to an agreement and the union members must follow that (Booth, 1995). In February 2007 Schultz says in one of letter to Starbucks employees â€Å"My focus is on you ‘the partners who have made Starbucks such a trusted presence around the world. And my focus is on preserving the trust that we have built with our customers and each other over the years. I want you to know that you can be proud of the company we all work for and that you can continue to trust the foundation it’s built upon† Schultz had trust in his employees as he had build up strong relationship with them in Starbucks by understand their desires. Schultz leadership has developed a good teamwork and integration of the individual and groups and goal. Schultzs leadership approach makes staff feel like partners. That is why frontline staff in the stores are so welcoming and passionate. He gave his employees protection, dignity, empowerment and a good working environment. That is why Schultz says that Starbucks doesn’t need a union because he is doing everything for the employees what usually a union does. Approaches to Leadership: There are many ways of looking at leadership and many interpretations of its meaning. Leadership might be based on function of personality or, it can be seen as a behavioura3 category (Vecchio, 2000) . It may also be viewed in terms of the role of the leaders and their ability to achieve effective performance from others. The relationship between leaders and management is that management is more usually viewed as getting work done though other people to achieve organizational objectives (Worsfold, 1989), where as leaders are more concerned with the attention to communicating with motivating, encouraging and involving people (Hunt, 1986). There are so many theories and models of leadership like Traits approach, the functional approach, Leadership as behavioral category, Style approach, Contingency models, and Transformational Leadership. Here I would like to discuss Transformational leadership with regard to leadership approach and style in Starbucks. In recent years increasing business competitiveness and the need for the most effective use of human resources are needed. The transformational leadership’s view focuses on idealized influence, inspirational motivation, intellectual stimulation and individual consideration (Bass, 1985). According to Bass transformational leaders motivates followers to do more than what they are expected and the extent of transformation is measured in terms of leader’s effects on followers. It emphasizes on generating a vision for the organization, creating a feeling of justice, loyalty and trust. Idealized Influence: symbolizes the capability of building confidence in the leader and values the leader by his followers. As Starbucks is an employee-focused company, Schultz has taken a great care in recruiting partners and promotes the existing partners. Schultz made himself as example for the employees to follow him. Inspirational Motivation: is the behaviour of the leader, respect and admiration of followers. Leadership in Starbucks has ensured that high wages, benefits, stock plans and positive working environment are one of the reasons to maintain motivation among the staff. Intellectual Stimulation: leaders who solicit new and novel approaches for performance to work, creative problem solutions. Schultz invested in training and development of the employees. Starbucks appreciated feedback from the employees and they felt empowered and encouraged. Starbucks’ one of the most thriving innovations came from the employees â€Å"Frappuccino† a popular cold coffee. Individual Consideration: true leaders are those who listen to their followers and give special consideration to their needs and wants. Starbucks leadership provided parent group day care for their children, health insurance and work life balance. Leadership Styles: In order to get the best results from the employees, leaders need to encourage and be co-operative to the employees (Bonnington,1988) .According to Adair (2003) Leadership style is the way in which the functions of leadership are carried out . Three main classification of leadership style are autocratic style, democratic style and laissez-faire (genuine )style (Belbin,1993). Here I would like to discuss democratic style of leadership with regard to leadership style in Starbucks. In democratic style, the functions of leadership are shared with the members of the group. The group members have a greater say in decision making (Useem, 2001). Starbucks leadership team is among the best when it comes to global market. Schultz looked for employees who are team player and have passion to work for Starbucks. Schultz took care of employees and treated them with respect. He has created a unique culture in Starbucks in which entrepreneurship and empowerment, quality and service define values of leadership. Schultz gave more power to employees in decision making and also flexibility to choose their own working hours. He honoured the feedback from the employees in Starbucks therefore I can say that Schultz had democratic style of leadership in Starbucks Conclusion: I would summarize by saying that Starbucks is the most flourishing coffee shop in the world and with Schultz leadership and vision Starbucks still continue expand. Starbucks take great care in recruitment and selection and trains them intensively. Schultz believes that it is important for Starbucks respect all the employees and motives them. Starbucks enjoys the democratic style of leadership. References: Adair, J (2003). The Inspirational Leader : How to Motivate, Encourage and Achieve Success, Kogan Bass, B.M. (1985) , B.M. Leadership and Performance Beyond Expectations, Free Press . Belbin, R.M (1993). Team Roles at Work, Butterworth Heinemann. Bonnington C, (1988) ‘Leading to the Top: The Successful Management of People’, Office and Information Management International, pp8-9. Booth, A.L (1995). The Economics of The Trade Union, Cambridge University Press. Druker, P.F (1998) .The Practice of Management, Heinemann Professional Fullan,M (2001). Leading in a Culture of Change, Jossey-Bass Hunt J W, Managing People at Work, Second edition, McGraw-Hill. Luthans.F. (1998) Organizational Behavior, Boston, MA. McGraw-Hill Useem, M. ‘How to Groom Leaders of the Future’ in Pickford, J.(ed) Financial Times Mastering Management, p.297 Vecchio, R. P. Organizational Behavior: Core Concepts, Fourth edition, Dryden Press. Watson C M, ‘ Leadership (1983), Management and the Seven Keys’, Business. Whitehead, M (2002). ‘ Everyone’s a Leader Now’, Supply Mnangement Worsfold, P. (1989). Leadership in the Hospitality Industry’ in Cassee E and Reuland (eds), International Journal of Hospitality Zaleznik, A (1977). Managers and leaders: Are they Different? Harvard Business Review Horizons. http://www.docstoc.com http://www.businessweek.com Q4. ‘Motivated and committed human resources were the key to successes. What strategies has Starbucks used in order to gain the motivation and commitment of its employees? With reference to appropriate theories and models, provide a reasoned discussion of how the company can ensure the levels of motivation and commitment that it needs to succeed in the future? Starbucks has more than 3,300 locations all over the world and serves coffee to its coffee lovers every day. It has the history of tremendous growth and success. In addition to the sales of coffee and coffee beans, the company enjoys the remarkable repute as a progressive employer. Starbucks is known for its friendly policies and motivational programs. The employees who are constantly in contact with the customers are the frontline staff. Hence Starbucks motivates, trains and rewards employees turning them into a committed and motivated workforce. The foundation of the company’s mission statement are five guiding principals and one of these principal is to provide great work and treat each other with respect and dignity. Strategies of motivation: According to the case study, motivated and committed human resources are the key to success in Starbucks. Howard Shultz believes that success of Starbucks is not coffee but employees and feels honoured about the value about the Starbucks employees. That is why it is essential to have intensive training policy for the better performance in the company (Michelli,2006). Starbucks offers an interactive structure that encourages employees to commit themselves into their job so they can motivate partners to satisfy themselves and also achieve a new level of performance. Starbucks use strategies to motivate employees and in order to gain the commitment. Starbuck’s motivational strategies programs for its employees are: Selecting the right people Investment in training and development Work life balance Employee ownership Feedback system Non capitalization job tittles Flexibility Mission review program Parameters of success in Starbucks: Due to Starbucks motivational strategies Starbucks continues to expand geographically. Starbucks has more than 15,000 stores all over the world (www.starbucks.com). Starbucks employees are highly trained and have good customer service skills. Starbucks is ranked as the 16th â€Å"Best company to work for† in America by Fortune magazine. Starbucks has low turnover of employees as their need were taken care of and they are motive and committed towards work. Starbucks has changed a concept of coffee into ‘Starbucks Experience’ It has resulted the customers to come back approximately 18 times a month. Theoretical Framework: There are several motivation theories that have helped organizations to figure out how employees can be motivated. Motivation is â€Å"the internal process that activates, guide and maintain behaviour† (Baron, 1991). Robertson and Smith (1985) agree that ‘motivation is psychological concept related to the strength and direction of human behaviour. According to research, motivations theories can offer guidance to anyone with an interest in motivational issues. These do not give a definite answer to all the motivation questions but it provides a framework. There are many variables such as moods, financial circumstances etc that work together to create a situation and a person concerned to fully understand why variables result in particular behaviours Gorman (2003). Vroom expectancy theory: The expectancy theory of Victor Vroom deals with motivation and management. Vroom’s theory is based on idea that employee effort will lead to performance and performance will lead to rewards. Rewards may be either positive or negative. Employees will be highly motivated if the reward is positive and negative rewards lead to less motivated employees (Vroom, 1964). According to research motivation develops commitment among employees. Developing a stronger commitment and the motivation allows you to be well recognizing in the market and gain market share. According to Starbucks case study Starbucks hire right people by having right people. Starbucks implement intensive training program for each employee before starting their job. Starbucks recognizes the efforts made by the employees in order to get high performance. To gain high performance rewards are offered by Starbucks to their employees in open forum such as Warm Regards, the Mug Award and the â€Å"Spirit of Starbucks Award†. Other benefits like training and development, flexible timings partner connection, equality etc are offered in order to motivate and gain commitment. Rewards develop motivation and Starbucks offers rewards and benefits to motivate their employees. Sustaining motivation and commitment: To sustain the level of motivation and commitment in future, Starbucks treats its employees well. Starbucks offers opportunity to all full and part time employees to receive stock option, healthcare benefits, sick pay and bean stock etc. Starbucks continues with building programmes that address to personal life and needs of its partner. Starbucks carries out regular surveys of its partners to measure their needs and take action with suitable work life solution. Starbucks transforms the behaviours and opinion of overall coffee consumer. Starbucks is not only of the fastest growing company but it is also an excellent business model with high profit performance and low turnover. According to the case study, it is obvious that motivation is the key factor of Starbucks’ strategy. A good relationship between Starbucks’ employees maintains a high quality performance. Starbucks have great responsibility towards their staff. Their decisions affects directly or indirectly on employees desire and interests and overall ability to love what they do for living. Employees would have many reasons to stay with Starbucks if the staff are motivated. To ensure the levels of motivation and commitment that Starbucks needs to succeed in the future, the company should introduce more benefits and training programs to motivate employees. Long term service recognition awards should be offered which would increase performance and commitment. Variations i n benefits to employees can give opportunity to Starbucks employees to stay motivated and committed such as giving them an opportunity to win a holiday if one has been employee of the month for 3 months. References: Baron R.A. (1991) ‘Motivation in work settings: reflections on the core of organizational research ‘. Motivation and Emotion. Vol.15, No.1.pp1-8 Gorman P. (2003). Motivation and Emotion, Rutledge, New York. Kanfer R. (1998) ‘Motivation’. In Nicholson N. (ed.) Encyclopaedic Dictionary of Organizational Behaviour. Oxford, Blackwell Publishers Ltd. Kanfer R. (1990) ‘Motivation theory and industrial and organizational psychology’. In Dunnette M.D. AND Hough L.M. (EDS) Handbook of Industrial and Organisational Psychology. Palo Alto, Ca, Consulting Psychologists. Michelli, J (2006) the Starbucks experience McGraw-Hill Smith, K.L (1990). The future of leaders in Extension. Journal of Extension. Vroom, V.H. (1964). Work and motivation. New York: Wiley. Weiner B. (1992) Human Motivation. Metaphors, theories and research. California, Sage Publications. http://brandautopsy.typepad.com

Things Fall Apart :: essays research papers

Things Fall Apart is by the widely acclaimed African author Chinua Achebe. The story told is a tragic one of a person by the name of Okonkwo who's own stubborn views about what it is to be a man leads to his own demise. Okonkwo is often compared by people to the tragic hero like those in Greek tragedies. This is probably the primary way in which the text is interpreted but I feel Achebe is trying to make another point as well through the story. Achebe received inspiration to write the novel from a poem written by an Englishman by the name of William Butler Yeats. The title of the poem is The Second Coming. The poem talks about anarchy that is upon the world during the present time and how things will change with the 'second coming." During this 'second coming'; the chaos that is prevalent will end finally after two thousand years. Achebe uses this poems basic idea by creating the story of Okonkwo who lives in a chaotic and barbaric world. To outsiders who are observing Okonkwo's people, they may certainly seem uncivilized in many ways. Achebe symbolizes the end of this anarchy in Okonkwo's society by the introduction of Christian missionaries who pacify the Ibo people and ultimately cause the death of Okonkwo. I believe Okonkwo is the last and final source of chaos that is finally muted to bring civility to the people. The Ibo people live a very peaceful but ignorant life. At first glance their lifestyle may seem to be normal but when examining the depths of it we can clearly see why it would seem to be chaotic. When I use the term chaos or anarchy I don't mean it in the literal sense but in comparison to the modern world or in particular England. Anarchy or chaos in my usage is meant to be the lack of morals and/or certain values, which we as westerners would agree to be good. There are many things that the Ibo people were accustomed to that we would find horrific and savage. One of their customs was to throw away babies that were borne as identical twins because they were thought of as being bad. Another custom was to mutilate the dead corpse of a baby that was thought to be evil in order to prevent it from being borne again. Another thing that is chaotic about their culture was the fact that their laws and justice system were very perverted.

Trends in Indian Rainfall

National Climate Centre Research Report No: 2/2006 Trends in the rainfall pattern over India P. Guhathakurta and M. Rajeevan National Climate Centre India Meteorological Department PUNE. INDIA 411005 [email  protected] gov. in Abstract Monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall time series of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of India were constructed using a fixed but a large network of about 1476 rain-gauge stations. These rainfall series are thus temporally as well as spatially homogenous. Trend analysis was carried out to examine the long-term trends in rainfall over different sub divisions.Also monthly contributions of each of the monsoon months to annual rainfall in each year were computed and the trend analysis was performed. It has been found that the contribution of June, July and September rainfall to annual rainfall is decreasing for few sub-divisions while contribution of August rainfall is increasing in few other subdivisions. 1 1. Introduction In the context of climate chang e, it is pertinent to ascertain whether the characteristics of Indian summer monsoon also is changing.The Indian summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall is very crucial for the economic development, disaster management, hydrological planning for the country. Earlier, Mooley and Parthasarathy (1984), Parthasarathy et al. (1993), Parthasarathy et al. (1994), constructed all India rainfall series based on 306 uniformly distributed stations. They have also used area weighted method to calculate all India rainfall using rainfall data of the 306 districts outside the hilly regions like Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Hills of west Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, Bay Islands and Arabian Sea Island.Presently this time series is updated by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (www. tropmet. res. in) and this rainfall time series was extensively used by many researchers. At present there are more than 500 districts in the country. Using only 306 raingauge s tations, it may not be possible to represent all the districts and prepare district-wise rainfall climatology. All the districts are having geographical area more than 100 square km (except Andaman and Nicobar Islands). Only one station in the district may not produce reliable district rainfall climatology as rainfall is highly variable (WMO, 1983).Spatial homogeneity cannot be achieved with one or two stations in a district. Long term trends of Indian monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole as well as for smaller regions have been studied by several researchers. Most of the studies are based on the rainfall series constructed by Parthasarathy et al. (1994). They have found that the monsoon rainfall is without any trend and mainly random in nature over a long period of time, particularly on the all India time scale (Mooley and Parthasarathy, 1984). But on the spatial scale, existence of trends was noticed by Parthasarathy (1984) and Rupa Kumar et al. (1992).Parthasarathy (1984) found that the monsoon rainfall for the two subdivisions viz. sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and the Bihar Plains are having decreasing trends while for the four sub- 2 divisions viz. Punjab, Konkan & Goa, West Madhya Pradesh and Telangana are having increasing trends. Using the network of 306 stations and for the period 18711984, Rupa Kumar et al. (1992) identified the areas having decreasing and increasing trends of monsoon rainfall. The past performances of the monsoon rainfall may give an indication of the future scenario. But in order to do so we should also understand the climatology in a better way.The construction of a homogeneous rainfall data series (spatially as well as temporally) was the first step in this study. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has a good network of rain gauge stations. From the vast data set archived at the National Data Centre, IMD, Pune, a network of 1476 rain-gauge stations was selected which have only 10% or less missing years of data. To construct a homogeneous data series for the complete data period of 1901-2003 missing period of the observatory data are replaced by the neighboring state rain-gauge data and vice versa. Fig. (a) shows the plot of the 1476 stations used for the study while Fig. 1 (b) show the plot of 306 stations used by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology for construction of homogeneous rainfall data (Parthasarathy 1984). Clearly, the network considered in this study is more uniformly spaced and temporally homogeneous, which can be used for analyzing the spatial and temporal variability in a better way. 2. Construction of homogeneous data series To prepare a homogenous rainfall time series, we have selected 1476 rain- gauge stations having maximum data availability during the period 1901-2003.Data for these stations are available for at least 90% of the years considered for this study (1901-2003). However, if some data was found missing for a particular station, the data gap was filled up by the rainfall data of a neighboring rain-gauge station. We have considered 458 districts for the present analysis. Each of these 458 districts of the country has two or more representing stations. First of all, the district rainfall is calculated as the arithmetic average of rainfall data of stations in the district. Thus, the rainfall data series was constructed as spatially and temporally homogeneous. Rainfall for the meteorological subdivisions (36) was calculated as the area weighted rainfall of the districts within the meteorological sub divisions. 3. Rainfall Over the country as a whole All India monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall series were constructed based on the area weighted rainfall of all the 36 meteorological subdivisions of the country. The results are given in Table 1. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation are also given in the same Table. Mean (1901-2003) rainfall of July is 286. 5 mm, which is the highest and contributes 24. % of annual r ainfall (1182. 8 mm). The August rainfall is slightly lower and it contributes 21. 2% of annual rainfall. June and September rainfall are almost similar and they contributes 13. 8 % and 14. 2 % of annual rainfall respectively. The mean south-west monsoon rainfall (877. 2 mm) contributes 74. 2 % of annual rainfall (1182. 8 mm). Contribution of pre-monsoon rainfall and post-monsoon rainfall in annual rainfall is mostly the same (11%). Coefficient of variation is higher during the months of November, December, January and February. Fig. shows the comparison of the IITM southwest monsoon season (June-September) rainfall series with the rainfall series constructed in this study. The correlation coefficient between these two series is found to be very large, 0. 97. The mean seasonal rainfall of IITM series is 844. 5 mm whereas the men value of this time series is 877. 2 mm. The high mean value of the present series is because of the consideration all the 36 meteorological subdivisions, in cluding hilly regions. The standard deviation and coefficient of variability for the IITM series are 81. mm and 9. 6% and the same for the present time series are 71. 0 mm, 8. 1% respectively. Coefficient of variation of the present time series is smaller compared to IITM time series. 4. Epochal patterns of Indian summer monsoon rainfall It is well known that Indian summer monsoon rainfall displays multi-decadal variations in which there is a clustering of wet or dry anomalies (Pant and Kumar, 1997). To examine the epochs of above and below normal rainfall, 31-year running means of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) was calculated to isolate low 4 requency behavior. These epochs of above and below normal rainfall are shown in Figure 4. Rainfall was above normal for nearly forty years from 1930s to 1960s. To understand the epochal behavior of rainfall series for different monsoon months, we have also calculated 31-year running means of each of the monsoon months (Figure 5). It is seen that epochal behavior of July and September rainfall is almost similar to that of monsoon seasonal rainfall. In August, the above normal or positive phases started from the middle of 1950s and continued till to the end.Both June and August rainfall are in positive phase in the recent decades while July and September rainfall are in the negative phase. Fig. 6 shows the decadal means of all India summer monsoon rainfall anomalies. The alternating sequence of multi-decadal periods having frequent droughts and flood years are clearly noticed in Fig. 6. We can delineate (i) 1901-1930 dry period (ii) 1931-60 wet period (iii) 1961-90 Dry period (iv) 1991-2020 (possibly) Wet period. Earlier studies by Pant and Kumar(1997) using the data series of Parthasarathy et al. 1994) also found the similar results of 30 years of alternating sequences of dry and wet period. The Table 2 shows the decadal mean, frequencies of drought and flood years. The deficient or excess monsoon years are defined for those years where monsoon rainfall percentage departures from the mean rainfall are less or more than the standard deviation (8. 1% of mean). In the decade 1911-20, there were four deficient and three excess years. During the dry period of 1901-30, we had eight deficient years and three excess years. During the next three decades of wet period, we had three deficient years and five excess years.In the dry period of 1961-90, there were seven deficient years and four excess years. Also during the period of 1901-2003, number of deficient years (19) is more than the number of excess years (13). Fig. 7 shows a similar picture for each of the four monsoon months. Except for the decade 1921-30, behavior of July rainfall was almost similar to that of monsoon seasonal rainfall. During the decade 1921-30, in spite of high contribution from July, seasonal rainfall became negative because of high negative contribution of June and August rainfall. Decadal variability is more in June where a lternating equence of wet and dry periods are seen on almost every decade. Coefficient of variability of July (12. 3%) and August (12. 0%) rainfall are also less compared to June (18. 1%) and September (19. 1%) rainfall. 5 5. Trends in All India monsoon rainfall Fig. 8 shows the All India monsoon seasonal rainfall series as percentage departure from long period average. The series was subjected to a ‘low- pass filter’ in order to suppress the high frequency oscillations. The weights used were nine point Gaussian probability curve (0. 01, 0. 05, 0. 12, 0. 20, 0. 24, 0. 20, 0. 12, 0. 5, 0. 01). It is clearly seen that no linear trend exists in this series. We have also used linear regression technique and the ‘Students t’ test for testing if there is any significance in the trend. All India summer monsoon rainfall as well the rainfall during the four monsoon months do not show any significant trend. 6. Trends in Sub-divisional rainfall It is interesting to se e that for the country as a whole, the all India monsoon rainfall and monthly rainfall for the monsoon months do not show any significant trend. But there can be large variations in the regional scale.In order to study the secular variations of regional rainfall we have then carried out the trend analysis for the monthly rainfall series of June, July, August, and September and also for the season as a whole for all the 36 subdivisions. The results are shown in Fig 9, which shows significant and remarkable variations on the regional scale. We have analyzed July and August rainfall, which contributes major portion of monsoon seasonal rainfall. We find in July, six subdivisions have shown decreasing trends and eight subdivisions have increasing trends. In August, four (ten) subdivisions have decreasing (increasing) trends for August rainfall.We have considered all the cases of 99%, 95% and 90% levels of statistical significance. June rainfall has shown increasing trend for the western and southwestern parts of the country whereas decreasing trends are observed for the central and eastern parts of the country. But July rainfall has decreased for most parts of the central and peninsular India but increased significantly in the northeastern parts of the country. August rainfall has increased significantly (at 95% significance level) for the subdivisions Konkan & Goa, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, West M.P. , Telangana and west U. P. September rainfall is increasing significantly (at 95% level of significance) in Gangetic West Bengal and decreasing significantly (at 90% level of significance) for 6 the sub-divisions Marathwada, Vidarbha and Telangana. Fig. 10 shows the trends in southwest monsoon rainfall (in mm in 100 year) for each of the 36 subdivisions. Different levels of significance are shaded with colours. During the season, three subdivisions viz. Jharkhand (95%), Chattisgarh (99%), Kerala (90%) show significant decreasing trends and eight subdiv isions viz.Gangetic WB (90%), West UP (90%), Jammu & Kashmir (90%), Konkan & Goa (95%), Madhya Maharashtra (90%), Rayalseema (90%), Coastal A P (90%) and North Interior Karnataka (95%) show significant increasing trends. In order to examine further, whether the contribution of each month’s rainfall in the annual rainfall shows any significant trend, we have prepared a time series of contribution of rainfall for each month towards the annual total rainfall for each year in percentages. Trend analyses are carried out for each month and for all the 36 subdivisions.Results suggest that contribution of June and August rainfall exhibited significant increasing trends, while contribution of July rainfall exhibited decreasing trends. Fig. 11 shows some very interesting results. June rainfall is getting importance as its contribution to annual rainfall is increasing in almost 19 subdivisions while decreasing in the remaining 17 subdivisions. Contribution of July rainfall is decreasing in central and west peninsular India (significantly in South interior Karnataka (95%), East M. P. (90%) Vidarbha (90%), Madhya Maharashtra (90%), Marathwada (90%), Konkan & Goa (90%), and North interior Karnataka (90%)).Interestingly, contribution of August rainfall is increasing in all these subdivisions. Therefore, we see a major shift in rainfall pattern spatially and temperally during the recent years. 7. Trends in sub-divisional rainfall during other seasons Though south-west monsoon is the major rain producing season over the country, other seasons have also significant contribution in some specific areas. The rainfall during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons are mostly predominant by western disturbances and convective activities whereas during northeast monsoon is predominant over southern states during the October-December period.Therefore, trends analysis was also carried out on sub-divisional rainfall series for the winter 7 season (January – February), pre-monso on season (March-May), post-monsoon season (October-December) and also for the annual rainfall. Fig. 12 shows the increase/decrease in mm in 100 year in each of 36 subdivisions for the winter, premonsoon, post-monsoon seasons and annual. Different levels of significance are shaded with different colours. Rainfall is decreasing in almost all the sub-divisions except for the sub-divisions Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during the winter season.The rainfall for the subdivisions viz. east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh where winter rainfall is mostly due to western disturbances is also decreasing significantly. Rainfall is decreasing significantly for the eighteen sub-divisions of the country during the winter season. During the pre-monsoon season, rainfall is decreasing over most parts of the central India. This may indirectly suggests that the convective activity which is the main cause for the rainfall activities during the pre-monsoon season is decreasing over the central parts of the country.Rainfall is decreasing significantly for the six subdivisions viz. Gujarat Region, west M. P. , east M. P. , Vidarbha, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand. However during the post-monsoon season, rainfall is increasing for almost all the sub-divisions except for the nine sub-divisions. It is increasing significantly for the sub-divisions viz. Saurashtra & Kutch, Marathwada and Rayalseema. For the sub-divisions Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Kerala significant decrease in rainfall is even observed in annual scale.Significant increasing trend is observed in the annual scale for the sub-divisions Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka, Rayalseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Assam & Meghalaya and Jammu & Kashmir. 8. Conclusions There was a need for development of a homogeneous (spatially and temporally) rainfall series for all the 36 meteorological subdivisions as well as for the country as a whole. The newly constructed rainfall series is uniformly distributed through out the country and it represents all the existing districts.Though Indian monsoon rainfall as a whole does not show any significant trend, significant rainfall trends are observed over some specific areas. Present study brings out some of the interesting and also significant changes in the rainfall pattern of the country. The 8 alternating sequence of multi-decadal periods of thirty years having frequent droughts and flood years are observed in the all India monsoon rainfall data. The decades 1961-70, 1971-80 and 1981-90 were dry periods. The first decade (19912000) in the next 30 years period already experienced wet period (Fig. 6).Therefore, there is a chance of wet period for the subsequent two decades viz. 2001-2010 and 2011-2020. Decadal variability is more for the June and September months while decadal variability of July rainfall is almost similar to that of monsoon rainfall. July rainfall is decreasing for most parts of central India while it is decreasing for the north eastern parts of the country. However June and August rainfall is increasing for the central and south western parts of the country. During the southwest monsoon season, three subdivisions viz. Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Kerala show significant decreasing trend and eight subdivisions viz.Gangetic WB, West UP, Jammu & Kashmir , Konkan & Goa , Madhya Maharashtra, Rayalseema , Coastal A P and North Interior Karnataka show significant increasing trends. For the first time, we have also studied contribution of each of major rain producing month’s (i. e. June, July, August and September) in annual rainfall and examine whether there is any significant change in their contribution. June rainfall is getting importance as its contribution to annual rainfall is increasing in almost 19 sub-divisions while decreasing in the remaining 17 subdivisions. Contribution of July rainfall is decreasing in central and west peninsular In dia.But contribution of August rainfall is increasing in all these areas. Significant increasing trend is also observed in the annual rainfall for the sub-divisions Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka, Rayalseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Assam & Meghalaya and Jammu & Kashmir. Acknowledgements: The authors are thankful to Dr (Mrs) N. Jayanthi, LACD ADGM(R) and Shri Thakur Prasad, DDGM (C) for providing kind support and encouragements for this research work. We also acknowledge the help provided by the staff of the Hydrology section.Note : Electronic version of the all India monthly rainfall shown in Table – 1 can be obtained from National Climate Centre ([email  protected] pune. gov. in) 9 References Pant, G. B. & Rupa Kumar, K. , 1997, Climates of South Asia. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 320 pp. Parthasarathy B, 1984, Inter-annual and long term variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall’, Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. (Eart h Planet. Sci. ), 93, 371-385. Parthasarathy B, Rupa Kumar K and Munot A 1993 Homogeneous Indian monsoon rainfall: variability and prediction; Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. (Earth Planet Science) 102 121-155.Parthasarathy, B. , Munot A and Kothawale D R 1994: All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series 1887-1993; Theoretical and Applied Climatology 49 217-224. Rupa Kumar, K. , Pant G. B. , Parthasarathy, B. and Sontakke, N. A. 1992, Spatial and sub-seasonal patterns of the long-term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Int. J. of Climatol. , 12, 257-268. Mooley, D. A. & Parthasarathy, B. , 1984: Fluctuations in All-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978. Climatic Change, 6, 287-301. World Meteorological Organization, 1983, Guide to Climatological Practices, WMO No 100. 10Table-1 All India monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall Rainfall in mm YEAR 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 JAN 34. 1 11. 4 18. 7 17. 5 24. 9 23. 0 15. 8 22. 2 25. 7 16. 2 41. 1 23. 4 8. 9 6. 4 22. 1 5. 8 9. 6 14. 1 50. 6 24. 9 39. 9 29. 4 26. 0 21. 3 14. 6 29. 4 14. 3 23. 2 28. 0 23. 6 13. 8 10. 0 17. 8 24. 8 30. 0 11. 8 7. 8 30. 8 14. 1 16. 0 25. 7 25. 0 54. 9 28. 5 34. 8 6. 9 23. 2 25. 6 13. 2 30. 2 15. FEB 40. 2 12. 4 14. 0 15. 6 26. 3 49. 2 48. 6 23. 0 21. 4 15. 2 11. 1 23. 7 41. 7 32. 8 42. 1 22. 3 35. 7 7. 1 24. 4 23. 6 10. 8 12. 5 42. 2 25. 7 13. 4 13. 2 34. 2 42. 5 22. 4 22. 2 33. 2 25. 1 32. 9 11. 4 21. 3 41. 5 53. 6 32. 6 33. 4 27. 9 17. 4 45. 1 12. 2 43. 0 10. 8 21. 5 21. 0 29. 0 29. 7 25. 0 15. 3 MAR 29. 6 28. 6 35. 8 38. 5 45. 1 39. 1 46. 7 21. 5 19. 3 22. 5 52. 9 27. 5 31. 0 33. 2 51. 8 17. 8 29. 7 39. 6 27. 6 49. 4 20. 0 18. 4 29. 0 20. 7 20. 9 59. 0 27. 6 25. 6 18. 4 27. 1 22. 2 26. 7 31. 0 22. 2 22. 7 41. 1 24. 6 28. 2 36. 5 45. 1 21. 2 19. 3 26. 7 59. 7 23. 2 26. 0 29. 1 42. 4 24. 4 37. 4 43. 1 APR 41. 9 48. 28. 8 38. 5 39. 5 25. 5 66. 8 38. 2 69. 4 35. 8 32. 4 43. 9 33. 4 50. 6 42. 8 36. 0 43. 2 41. 1 34. 9 36. 8 41. 1 32. 7 32. 4 35. 1 42. 3 42. 9 33. 5 39. 8 50. 4 47. 2 33. 6 32. 6 48. 7 36. 5 46. 9 32. 1 57. 9 31. 1 38. 3 32. 9 30. 7 45. 5 48. 6 37. 6 48. 0 48. 5 35. 4 40. 2 48. 0 26. 9 46. 2 MAY 59. 1 57. 3 66. 3 77. 2 62. 3 45. 6 41. 8 52. 5 59. 9 50. 6 52. 5 49. 7 77. 1 72. 5 62. 0 57. 6 80. 0 89. 4 60. 0 57. 5 40. 1 47. 4 55. 3 59. 7 86. 2 59. 6 54. 5 48. 6 55. 0 59. 8 56. 4 72. 1 98. 8 41. 5 36. 2 79. 4 53. 8 69. 4 39. 4 76. 0 69. 4 56. 1 86. 0 47. 6 50. 4 63. 5 47. 2 75. 2 78. 1 50. 2 58. 4 JUN 129. 4 123. 8 131. 169. 2 112. 1 185. 3 160. 9 135. 7 208. 1 213. 2 196. 8 115. 3 218. 8 166. 9 161. 8 215. 0 221. 3 181. 2 185. 7 151. 4 172. 5 184. 4 98. 6 121. 3 199. 2 95. 1 164. 5 158. 8 179. 0 172. 2 114. 5 125. 0 206. 9 197. 5 141. 9 241. 9 160. 2 245. 5 153. 7 170. 4 162. 2 172. 3 154. 6 138. 1 155. 7 201. 1 124. 0 153. 9 146. 7 142. 7 150. 3 JUL 252. 7 285. 6 298. 9 271. 9 263. 5 290. 7 236. 3 327. 0 314. 9 251. 3 174. 0 329. 3 278. 5 348. 6 232. 9 269. 8 267. 4 160. 9 294. 3 294. 2 274. 6 304. 1 321. 1 315. 0 297. 7 301. 8 333. 6 291. 3 292. 6 289. 1 294. 7 326. 7 275. 7 273. 5 312. 3 276. 2 329. 3 283. 5 262. 5 296. 0 234. 0 339. 305. 5 343. 4 315. 2 297. 4 294. 7 308. 3 298. 9 335. 5 251. 6 AUG 268. 6 209. 8 269. 3 216. 4 211. 3 252. 2 310. 9 308. 5 229. 0 285. 5 214. 6 262. 2 198. 3 239. 8 225. 8 302. 6 287. 3 231. 0 288. 6 177. 9 259. 9 214. 4 272. 2 249. 4 232. 2 326. 6 251. 9 216. 4 240. 9 196. 7 305. 5 227. 8 301. 9 290. 6 228. 1 228. 4 194. 9 239. 6 235. 6 282. 9 223. 4 286. 0 228. 3 288. 4 232. 9 286. 5 287. 4 275. 2 236. 8 235. 6 223. 9 SEP 137. 3 201. 1 195. 3 141. 6 175. 6 182. 5 104. 0 158. 8 165. 9 191. 6 181. 3 128. 8 117. 9 198. 2 175. 8 197. 4 277. 6 105. 2 152. 6 122. 3 193. 5 200. 6 167. 9 232. 9 123. 4 205. 5 152. 6 139. 1 122. 173. 5 186. 3 173. 8 211. 1 164. 4 178. 1 18 5. 4 174. 0 156. 2 150. 3 115. 1 148. 0 180. 4 203. 0 148. 1 210. 6 141. 6 234. 3 176. 5 217. 2 196. 7 130. 5 OCT 59. 5 69. 9 116. 1 73. 7 60. 2 55. 7 31. 8 46. 8 45. 2 111. 8 71. 0 61. 3 69. 6 52. 6 93. 8 140. 4 157. 1 23. 5 77. 1 47. 0 69. 3 56. 5 63. 0 63. 3 72. 2 54. 9 62. 8 115. 3 95. 8 93. 1 121. 7 68. 9 95. 9 62. 2 57. 1 64. 3 94. 5 75. 0 88. 9 62. 4 62. 9 44. 0 90. 5 90. 4 82. 4 79. 6 66. 9 63. 4 93. 2 56. 6 75. 4 NOV 37. 1 29. 3 39. 3 13. 4 12. 9 19. 2 24. 5 8. 9 12. 6 36. 1 43. 8 50. 3 18. 7 22. 3 47. 6 45. 5 27. 4 44. 7 50. 4 26. 5 16. 8 55. 2 17. 7 54. 6 42. 4 11. 8 56. 23. 4 19. 6 47. 7 41. 2 55. 7 21. 3 29. 5 17. 3 56. 2 21. 9 16. 1 29. 7 41. 4 27. 6 18. 2 18. 1 30. 3 21. 2 76. 9 9. 8 70. 0 12. 6 25. 4 31. 7 DEC 14. 0 27. 3 22. 6 19. 7 14. 2 29. 8 16. 6 12. 6 31. 4 9. 5 14. 8 8. 5 25. 1 23. 2 11. 2 5. 8 13. 4 18. 7 22. 5 6. 2 19. 3 16. 5 18. 3 18. 7 18. 4 11. 7 13. 7 29. 1 39. 7 12. 6 23. 8 17. 2 19. 1 14. 7 12. 9 22. 6 21. 0 7. 9 4. 5 18. 0 21. 5 29. 2 8. 5 17. 9 7. 8 39. 4 26. 4 12. 6 5. 7 10. 6 8. 7 J-F 74. 3 23. 8 32. 7 33. 1 51. 2 72. 2 64. 4 45. 2 47. 1 31. 4 52. 2 47. 1 50. 6 39. 2 64. 2 28. 1 45. 3 21. 2 75. 0 48. 5 50. 7 41. 9 68. 2 47. 0 28. 0 42. 6 48. 5 65. 7 50. 4 45. 8 47. 35. 1 50. 7 36. 2 51. 3 53. 3 61. 4 63. 4 47. 5 43. 9 43. 1 70. 1 67. 1 71. 5 45. 6 28. 4 44. 2 54. 6 42. 9 55. 2 31. 2 MAM 130. 6 134. 0 130. 9 154. 2 146. 9 110. 2 155. 3 112. 2 148. 6 108. 9 137. 8 121. 1 141. 5 156. 3 156. 6 111. 4 152. 9 170. 1 122. 5 143. 7 101. 2 98. 5 116. 7 115. 5 149. 4 161. 5 115. 6 114. 0 123. 8 134. 1 112. 2 131. 4 178. 5 100. 2 105. 8 152. 6 136. 3 128. 7 114. 2 154. 0 121. 3 120. 9 161. 3 144. 9 121. 6 138. 0 111. 7 157. 8 150. 5 114. 5 147. 7 J-S 788. 0 820. 3 894. 9 799. 1 762. 5 910. 7 812. 1 930. 0 917. 9 941. 6 766. 7 835. 6 813. 5 953. 5 796. 3 984. 8 1053. 6 678. 3 921. 2 745. 8 900. 903. 5 859. 8 918. 6 852. 5 929. 0 902. 6 805. 6 835. 4 831. 5 901. 0 853. 3 995. 6 926. 0 860. 4 931. 9 858. 4 924. 8 802. 1 864. 4 767. 6 978. 2 891. 4 918. 0 914. 4 926. 6 940. 4 913. 9 899. 6 910. 5 756. 3 O-D 110. 6 126. 5 178. 0 106. 8 87. 3 104. 7 72. 9 68. 3 89. 2 157. 4 129. 6 120. 1 113. 4 98. 1 152. 6 191. 7 197. 9 86. 9 150. 0 79. 7 105. 4 128. 2 99. 0 136. 6 133. 0 78. 4 133. 4 167. 8 155. 1 153. 4 186. 7 141. 8 136. 3 106. 4 87. 3 143. 1 137. 4 99. 0 123. 1 121. 8 112. 0 91. 4 117. 1 138. 6 111. 4 195. 9 103. 1 146. 0 111. 5 92. 6 115. 8 ANNUAL 1103. 5 1104. 6 1236. 5 1093. 2 1047. 9 1197. 8 1104. 7 1155. 1202. 8 1239. 3 1086. 3 1123. 9 1119. 0 1247. 1 1169. 7 1316. 0 1449. 7 956. 5 1268. 7 1017. 7 1157. 8 1172. 1 1143. 7 1217. 7 1162. 9 1211. 5 1200. 1 1153. 1 1164. 7 1164. 8 1246. 9 1161. 6 1361. 1 1168. 8 1104. 8 1280. 9 1193. 5 1215. 9 1086. 9 1184. 1 1044. 0 1260. 6 1236. 9 1273. 0 1193. 0 1288. 9 1199. 4 1272. 3 1204. 5 1172. 8 1051. 0 11 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 198 5 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Mean (1901-2003) S. D.C. V. 11. 0 26. 2 30. 4 23. 5 17. 5 32. 2 15. 1 28. 7 16. 3 24. 9 14. 9 13. 5 13. 2 13. 3 15. 7 12. 9 24. 3 12. 7 23. 2 17. 4 12. 4 15. 0 11. 7 17. 3 12. 7 17. 9 14. 8 20. 0 15. 0 26. 9 25. 9 18. 2 20. 4 23. 0 17. 8 17. 7 11. 0 15. 8 16. 8 14. 6 19. 2 18. 6 23. 9 27. 5 22. 3 16. 2 16. 9 20. 3 22. 0 11. 3 20. 4 15. 5 20. 3 8. 5 41. 8 22. 6 13. 9 36. 6 11. 1 16. 6 18. 8 20. 5 25. 1 9. 2 33. 9 24. 1 16. 2 19. 0 22. 9 23. 8 14. 1 21. 4 16. 4 27. 4 23. 1 25. 3 19. 4 14. 4 21. 3 22. 2 18. 4 28. 6 34. 7 21. 5 20. 3 25. 1 23. 5 31. 8 14. 4 34. 5 20. 4 24. 9 17. 8 42. 5 25. 7 23. 5 26. 9 25. 9 29. 0 22. 8 13. 0 33. 7 13. 6 26. 8 14. 20. 1 30. 9 24. 6 10. 0 40. 4 35. 1 24. 8 27. 9 29. 9 36. 7 41. 3 29. 8 30. 0 39. 7 27. 8 26. 3 38. 7 27. 9 34. 2 24. 8 55. 0 30. 5 26. 9 33. 3 26. 3 24. 8 27. 5 25. 0 32. 5 32. 3 27. 9 40. 7 34. 1 31. 7 45. 3 41. 1 38. 4 31. 0 30. 8 28. 5 29. 0 43. 8 32. 2 49. 5 29. 8 33. 9 40. 0 27. 3 28. 7 36. 5 33. 8 41. 9 18. 2 22. 9 23. 2 28. 5 32. 8 32. 0 9. 2 28. 8 37. 8 42. 4 30. 2 39. 5 37. 4 35. 3 39. 8 34. 1 28. 1 33. 5 47. 3 45. 6 38. 0 41. 6 34. 9 33. 1 37. 0 42. 5 37. 4 49. 0 37. 4 31. 9 35. 8 31. 5 39. 6 58. 3 32. 9 26. 9 38. 8 36. 1 50. 0 49. 7 42. 6 36. 6 48. 5 39. 4 45. 6 34. 4 43. 4 50. 9 32. 5 30. 7 47. 2 34. 5 35. 5 2. 9 41. 7 24. 2 43. 7 44. 2 42. 3 39. 0 39. 8 7. 9 19. 9 69. 9 48. 7 56. 3 77. 4 85. 8 62. 4 66. 9 68. 5 64. 3 73. 2 63. 6 58. 7 53. 6 50. 9 59. 8 48. 5 45. 6 66. 0 66. 1 73. 7 60. 4 61. 3 66. 2 54. 5 50. 4 81. 3 64. 1 56. 9 50. 6 60. 9 63. 3 63. 8 56. 3 54. 2 53. 9 64. 0 68. 3 56. 1 101. 7 73. 5 53. 9 67. 6 50. 9 77. 7 60. 9 51. 0 58. 9 81. 9 69. 9 61. 4 59. 7 55. 7 61. 9 12. 5 20. 2 168. 4 163. 3 148. 6 180. 3 208. 4 152. 3 123. 9 162. 6 152. 0 185. 8 123. 5 148. 8 152. 3 121. 0 169. 1 146. 3 146. 5 131. 8 195. 5 203. 3 137. 1 148. 5 126. 0 176. 1 157. 7 184. 3 187. 2 151. 1 212. 2 158. 9 139. 9 150. 3 164. 3 153. 0 174. 130. 1 159. 9 183. 3 180. 8 181. 8 141. 9 165. 7 199. 8 137. 4 170. 7 166. 7 162. 4 167. 3 178. 1 185. 6 161. 2 167. 8 163. 4 29. 5 18. 1 281. 8 312. 9 297. 7 241. 2 351. 3 288. 9 314. 5 345. 5 290. 6 329. 0 272. 9 254. 4 320. 6 279. 4 253. 1 296. 4 302. 4 305. 2 248. 8 260. 3 226. 3 284. 5 271. 6 295. 3 294. 1 305. 7 291. 4 244. 4 290. 4 303. 6 242. 7 279. 8 282. 1 270. 9 265. 7 237. 6 353. 4 308. 2 279. 0 281. 4 257. 9 314. 1 336. 3 301. 3 277. 0 284. 8 293. 1 274. 8 274. 5 275. 4 163. 9 305. 9 286. 7 35. 3 12. 3 249. 0 286. 0 237. 5 313. 9 259. 6 264. 9 285. 4 255. 5 244. 6 277. 3 257. 6 294. 9 273. 2 210. 1 229. 5 266. 214. 8 260. 6 300. 8 260. 3 234. 1 293. 4 240. 0 284. 8 292. 1 254. 9 277. 9 235. 1 263. 3 239. 3 274. 5 294. 4 260. 7 238. 7 235. 2 237. 1 285. 2 238. 1 292. 7 256. 0 269. 0 209. 8 278. 9 256. 1 283. 4 270. 5 253. 3 251. 0 240. 2 229. 8 244. 0 250. 1 255. 3 30. 6 12. 0 121. 9 169. 8 244. 5 217. 7 169. 0 130. 3 215. 0 219. 1 168. 6 228. 0 207. 0 163. 2 198. 4 145. 5 151. 7 176. 8 144. 3 179. 6 203. 3 159. 2 138. 9 182. 7 155. 8 224. 1 150. 2 152. 2 160. 4 146. 4 144. 8 193. 5 135. 5 224. 4 149. 7 157. 6 142. 0 152. 0 214. 0 170. 2 195. 2 135. 6 169. 2 200. 6 153. 3 183. 8 147. 0 163. 0 195. 5 191. 5 154. 3 138. 3 173. 0 181. 171. 8 32. 8 19. 1 76. 7 88. 5 81. 6 145. 9 149. 7 66. 4 103. 9 118. 6 75. 3 116. 7 80. 8 93. 0 68. 5 45. 3 62. 1 52. 0 73. 2 63. 5 75. 2 95. 5 70. 8 106. 2 101. 1 109. 8 39. 0 88. 7 62. 7 63. 5 56. 3 53. 8 60. 3 85. 1 69. 1 115. 0 72. 0 88. 4 57. 1 54. 2 99. 9 63. 9 69. 0 87. 8 87. 6 76. 3 98. 8 68. 1 102. 1 106. 5 60. 7 95. 0 69. 8 93. 8 78. 4 24. 8 31. 6 9. 4 14. 1 5. 6 28. 4 42. 8 27. 2 35. 4 25. 4 34. 8 22. 9 19. 9 25. 9 26. 4 18. 7 49. 4 14. 8 23. 4 35. 5 20. 0 16. 1 31. 3 17. 8 14. 4 23. 8 53. 5 61. 8 44. 5 71. 8 26. 0 29. 1 43. 9 14. 0 18. 2 20. 9 43. 9 45. 2 17. 9 20. 6 32. 2 33. 7 42. 3 29. 0 26. 8 35. 7 16. 5 56. 38. 9 23. 2 20. 6 26. 7 27. 0 26. 0 30. 7 15. 1 49. 3 24. 5 9. 8 16. 9 12. 9 15. 8 16 . 3 18. 7 11. 6 12. 6 13. 6 31. 5 19. 1 14. 8 25. 4 18. 4 46. 1 14. 6 17. 5 10. 0 18. 1 23. 8 19. 3 11. 9 9. 8 13. 0 15. 1 24. 6 16. 4 23. 4 16. 8 15. 0 24. 1 16. 9 22. 5 25. 9 21. 3 17. 0 18. 1 25. 2 22. 0 7. 6 18. 6 19. 1 10. 6 18. 6 45. 1 12. 5 8. 5 11. 5 11. 8 12. 0 20. 7 17. 9 7. 9 44. 0 33. 6 40. 1 67. 0 34. 6 34. 1 51. 0 35. 6 53. 8 25. 5 58. 8 39. 0 29. 7 32. 2 36. 2 39. 5 27. 0 45. 7 29. 1 50. 6 40. 5 37. 7 34. 4 26. 1 38. 6 34. 9 36. 3 43. 4 54. 7 36. 5 47. 2 51. 0 41. 7 52. 2 37. 4 52. 3 38. 1 35. 9 33. 6 59. 3 40. 3 42. 7 45. 49. 8 56. 5 45. 1 29. 2 50. 6 33. 9 48. 8 25. 4 40. 5 46. 4 44. 9 12. 3 27. 3 142. 8 115. 9 114. 4 146. 8 159. 9 139. 0 136. 5 132. 6 132. 1 134. 5 137. 2 143. 0 119. 5 126. 7 119. 5 136. 6 113. 1 135. 4 136. 8 149. 0 122. 6 120. 7 127. 0 118. 5 122. 3 167. 5 137. 7 117. 9 121. 1 142. 3 154. 4 151. 9 129. 9 121. 6 130. 9 132. 4 157. 7 122. 7 194. 6 154. 2 120. 3 138. 3 125. 4 140. 9 132. 9 127. 7 142. 5 124. 3 136. 5 128. 8 130. 5 127. 5 133. 7 17. 7 13. 2 821. 1 932. 0 928. 3 953. 1 988. 3 836. 4 938. 8 982. 7 855. 8 1020. 1 861. 0 861. 3 944. 5 756. 0 803. 4 885. 8 808. 0 877. 2 948. 4 883. 1 736. 4 909. 1 793. 4 980. 894. 1 897. 1 916. 9 777. 0 910. 7 895. 3 792. 6 948. 9 856. 8 820. 2 817. 0 756. 8 1012. 5 899. 8 947. 7 854. 8 838. 0 890. 2 968. 3 878. 6 878. 1 885. 0 904. 3 884. 6 847. 1 829. 1 742. 2 905. 7 877. 2 71. 0 8. 1 110. 6 112. 4 104. 1 187. 2 208. 3 109. 9 158. 0 155. 6 122. 7 153. 2 132. 2 138. 0 109. 7 89. 4 129. 9 112. 9 111. 2 116. 5 105. 2 129. 7 125. 9 143. 3 127. 4 143. 4 105. 5 165. 6 131. 8 151. 7 105. 7 99. 7 119. 2 123. 2 104. 2 158. 4 141. 8 154. 9 92. 0 92. 9 157. 3 119. 6 118. 9 135. 4 133. 5 122. 6 133. 9 169. 9 153. 5 138. 2 92. 8 133. 5 108. 8 140. 5 126. 9 28. 8 22. 7 1108. 1 1200. 4 1213. 8 1321. 7 1390. 1136. 3 1268. 9 1324. 7 1136. 1 1366. 6 1169. 4 1172. 0 1205. 9 1008. 3 1092. 3 1162. 3 1078. 0 1158. 2 1241. 0 1202. 3 1022. 6 1207. 5 1073. 9 1280. 8 1156. 8 1266. 5 1229. 8 1101. 3 1174. 0 1184. 5 1117. 2 1265. 7 1143. 1 1137. 6 1142. 0 1082. 2 1298. 1 1149. 0 1358. 9 1168. 9 1119. 9 1209. 4 1277. 0 1198. 6 1190. 0 1211. 8 1250. 9 1181. 0 1125. 2 1116. 8 1022. 0 1220. 1 1182. 8 87. 0 7. 4 12 Table-2 Decadal mean (% departure from normal), frequency of drought and flood years Decadal mean DECADE Per cent departure from normal 1901-10 1911-20 1921-30 1931-40 1941-50 1951-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-2003 -2. -2. 5 -0. 4 1. 7 3. 3 2. 5 -0. 1 -0. 8 -0. 3 0. 6 -5. 9 3 4 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 0 1 0 3 0 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 0 Freq. of Deficient year Freq. of Excess year 13 Fig. 1 Location of raingauge stations considered for the study 14 Fig. 2. Location of raingauge stations used by IITM (Parthasarathy et al. 1994) 15 R/F IN MM 0. 5 1. 5 2. 5 3. 5 -1 0 1 2 3 -0. 5 -1. 5 1000 1100 -2 500 600 700 800 900 1901 1904 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 YEAR 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 IITM(Parthosarothy Series) series and the new IMD series Fig. 3. Comparison between IITM South-West monsoon seasonal rainfall Fig. 4. The 31 year moving averages of all India south-west monsoon seasonal rainfall 16 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 IMD series 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE -4 0 1 2 3 4 1901 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE 6 8 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 3 -2 -1 1991-2000 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 YEAR 2001-03 1901-10 -8. 0 31 YEAR MOVING AVERAGE ALL INDIA AUGUST RAINFALL 1981-90 -6. 0 YEAR 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 1971-80 -4. 0 -2. 0 1961-70 1951-60 1941-50 1931-40 192 1-30 1911-20 31 YEAR MOVING AVERAGE ALL INDIA JUNE RAINFAL DECADAL MEANS OF ALL INDIA SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL (% DEPARTURE FROM MEAN) (June, July, August, September) Fig. 5. 31 year moving average of all India rainfall for the four monsoon months Fig 6.Decadal means of all India summer monsoon rainfall (% departure from mean) 17 -4 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 YEAR 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 -3 -2 -1 0 PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE PERCENTAG E DEPAR TURE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 -3 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 YEAR 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 31 YEAR MOVING AVERAGE ALL INDIA JULY RAINFALL 1 YEAR MOVING AVERAGE ALL INDIA SEPTEMBER RAINFALL June DECADAL MEANS OF ALL INDIA JUNE RAINFALL (% DEPARTURE FROM MEAN) -8. 0 1901-10 1911-20 1911-2 0 1921-30 1921-30 1931-40 1931-40 DECADE -6. 0 -4. 0 -2. 0 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0 8. 0 10. 0 12. 0 -15. 0 1901-10 July DECADAL MEANS OF ALL INDIA JULY RAINFALL (%DEPARTURE FROM MEAN) -10. 0 -5. 0 0. 0 5. 0 10. 0 1941-50 1941-50 Decade DECADE 1951-60 1951-60 1961-70 1961-70 1971-80 1971-80 1981-90 1981-90 1991-2000 1991-2000 2001-03 2001-03 August DECADAL MEANS OF ALL INDIA AUGUST RAINFALL (% DEPARTURER FROM MEAN) -8. 1901-10 -6. 0 -4. 0 -2. 0 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0 -10. 0 1901-10 -5. 0 0. 0 Septermber DECADAL MEANS OF ALL INDIA SEPTEMBER RAINFALL (%DEPARTURE FROM MEAN) 5. 0 10. 0 15. 0 20. 0 1911-20 1911-20 1921-30 1921-30 1931-40 DECADE 1931-40 1941-50 1941-50 1951-60 1951-60 1961-70 1961-70 1971-80 1971-80 1981-90 1981-90 1991-2000 1991-2000 2001-03 2001-03 Fig. 7. Decadal means of all India rainfall (% departure from mean) for the month of June, July, August and September 25. 0 20. 0 15. 0 10. 0 5. 0 0. 0 -5. 0 -10. 0 -15. 0 ALL INDIA MONSOON R. F -20. 0 -25. 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1 916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 Nine point gaussian filter PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE YEAR Fig. 8. All India Monsoon rainfall and its nine point Gaussian filter 18 Fig. 9. Increase/Decrease in rainfall in mm in 100 year for each of 36 subdivisions for the monsoon months. Different levels of significance are shaded with colors 19 Fig. 10. Increase/Decrease in rainfall in mm in 100 year for each of 36 subdivisions for the south-west monsoon season.Different levels of significance are shaded with colors 20 Fig. 11. Increase/Decrease in rainfall in percentage in 100 years in monthly contribution of rainfall to annual rainfall for each of the four monsoon months for 36 subdivisions 21 Fig. 12. Increase/Decrease in rainfall in mm in 100 year in each of 36 subdivisions for the winter, pre-monsoon, post-monsoon seasons and annual. Different levels of significance are shaded with co lors 22 N C C RESEARCH REPORTS New statistical models for long range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India, M. Rajeevan, D. S. Pai and Anil Kumar Rohilla, Sept. 2005. 23

Team Importance Week 3 Hcs 325

Introduction No management position is easy these days. There are many rules and regulations to follow, as well as many responsibilities that grow more over time. One of the responsibilities as a manager is to improve efficiency of the company and extend customer satisfaction. Not only does this take money, but time, skill, and teamwork. As the manager of a busy call center, the call volume has increased so much that there is an extra $20,000 to spend on improving customer satisfaction and efficiency. How can this be spent wisely to reach these goals? Teamwork is top on the list of importance because without a team, there is no business.Teams provide many things to a health care facility, as well as any other successful business. Teams are used in many different ways in other industries, such as the military, for example. This sets examples for the health care industry as to how teams might be used similarly there compared to somewhere like the government jobs. However, nothing is ea sy like saying the alphabet. In any industry, conflict does arise, and having the knowledge of problem solving is very good to have in order to make an educated decision for the health care organization. GoalsIn the call center, there is an extensive amount of money to be used for improving the quality of care, and customer’s satisfaction. Goals need to be set in order for the $20,000 to be used wisely. Teamwork is the answer to this. To improve quality of the product, and to increase customer satisfaction, everyone has to be able to work together very well to reach the goals of the company. So far because of this teamwork, the call volume has increased immensely. Managers in the call center have a process they follow, called the Five Step Planning process, which enables them to improve teamwork, which solely improves quality and satisfaction.Five Step Planning Process â€Å"At its most basic, planning is decision making†. (Donald J. Lombardi, John R. Schermerhorn, Bri an Kramer; 2007, John Wiley & Sons Inc. ). The five step planning process is used in order to make the best decisions possible when making decisions within an organization, as well as help out with any conflicts that may arise during the process. It is a support system for problem solving and breaks down how to do it with as little conflict as possible. Step one of the process is to identify and define the problem.This is where information is gathered, evaluated, and is deliberated. Doing so defines any problems correctly and can be taken care of efficiently without complications along the way. Step two of the process is to generate and evaluate possible courses of action. In this step, managers â€Å"can begin formulating one or several potential solutions†. (Donald J. Lombardi, John R. Schermerhorn, Brian Kramer; 2007, John Wiley & Sons Inc. ). More information may need to be gathered and analyzed before going to the third step of the process, which is choosing a preferred plan of action.In the third step, a decision is made with selecting a specific course of action. In the fourth step, implement the planned course of action, actions are established and implemented to meet the final goal. Nothing new is able to happen unless action is taken. Managers should have the ability to be able to have the determination and be creative in order to implement the planned course of action. Finally, the fifth and final step of the process is evaluating the results. What happens is the accomplishments with the original objectives are compared to what has been come up with.Both the positive and negative sides should be kept in an open mind, before a final decision is made to stick. Look Outside the box Looking at how other businesses are ran and how the make teamwork better is a way to improve customer satisfaction. Teamwork is used in different ways in other industries, such as the military, for example. They use teamwork to the full extent because in their world, it may mean life or death. Jane Dyer, a veteran, states â€Å"Teamwork is a fundamental lesson in the military. At basic training, you learn about being the member of a unit†.She also states that after you leave that basic training, you are still responsible for your unit and whether or not you like a team member, you will still honor and protect each other. The military is so tightly compact, they are like a family. This sets examples for teamwork in the health care organizations because whether or not you like a team member, that does not mean you cannot help the company you work for succeed along with yourselves. The military’s company is the United States. Should they not work together well, they could die and others lives would then be at stake.It is the same concept with businesses. Should the team not work together well and improve, then one, the company ends up dying, then everyone working loses their jobs. Just because one industry is different than the other, they could very well learn important lessons about team work from each other. Conclusion Industries around the world are very different but also alike in so many ways. The military is a great industry to look at for things like team work, because the health care industries can learn how to improve their quality of care and customer (patient) satisfaction.Having that extra money can benefit the companies when they focus on improving team work alone. Lessons are learned all around. References: Donald J. Lombardi, John R. Schermerhorn, Brian Kramer; 2007, John Wiley & Sons Inc, â€Å"Managerial and Supervisory Planning: Preparing for the Road Ahead†; retrieved from https://ecampus. phoenix. edu/content/eBookLibrary2/content/eReader. aspx Jane Dyer, 2010, â€Å"The military shows the importance of teamwork†; retrieved from http://www. mydd. com/users/jane-dyer/posts/the-military-shows-us-the-importance-of-teamwork